Hospitals & Asylums    

 

The 2010 World Atlas: MDGs 1990-2015 and the 2009 Factbook

 

By Anthony J. Sanders

sanderstony@live.com

 

Economic growth, around 3.5% since 1946, contracted 0.8% in 2009 and global trade plummeted nearly 25% from 2008 levels, the largest single year drop since WWII.  Purchasing power parity of GWP dropped to $70.29 trillion (2009 est.) from $70.84 trillion (2008 est.) and the official exchange rate GWP was $58.07 trillion U.S. dollars.  Per capita income retreated about 2% to $10,500 (2009 est.) from $10,700 (2008 est.) as global unemployment rose from 7% in 2008 to nearly 9% in 2009 while underemployment, especially in the developing world, remained much higher.  The number of hungry people rose from 700 million to a record high of 1.2 billion.  The IMF reports economic growth to be stable at 1.7% in the first quarter and 3.2% in the second quarter of 2010.   The UN Millennium Development Goal Report 2009 brings into question whether Goal 1 to halve poverty, <$1 day, from 45.5% in 1990 to 22.75% in 2015, has been jeopardized by the recession.  In 2007, only 21.5% were extremely poor, however the recession plunged 100 million more people below $1 a day and poverty increased to 22.9%, so in 2009 Goal 1 was not achieved.  Both 90% primary school enrollment rate and 50% reduction in people needing water are both achievable at current rates of growth.  The AIDS drugs arrived and rates of infection and death went down.  To achieve all the health related goals the utility bill for water and sewage connections must be paid, folic acid multi-vitamins are damned.  The short term plan for 2010 is for the bailouts to cease and ODA to exceed the $154 billion committed.  The long term plan is to levy a carbon tax to finance eco-friendly water, sewage and electricity (solar) connections in slums by 2030.  The medium term plan to finance the MDGs for 2015 is for the U.S. Dollar and Euro basket to experimentally appreciate developing nation currencies - equalizing exchange rate GDP with purchasing power parity GDP rate, in pursuit income equality and more purchasing (selling) power so:

 

US $ per XR (¦) Þ GDP XR = GDP PPP

 

¦ = ( GDP PPP – GDP EX ) + 1

GDP EX

 

According to the CIA World Factbook, hereafter the Factbook, the world population reached 6,821,176,973 by May 15, 2010 from 6,790,062,216 in July 2009, presuming a growth rate of 1.133%.  The birth rate was 19.86, death rate 8.83, and infant mortality 44.13 per 100,000.  The average life expectancy was 66.12 years, 64.29 for men and 68.07 for women.  The median age was 28.4, 27.7 for men and 29 years for women.  Developing nations usually exhibit higher growth rates as the result of higher birth rates but they often have higher rates of infant mortality and higher rates of death, thus a young, growing population.  European nations generally exhibit low growth rates, low birth rates, low infant mortality, an older population.  In Eastern Europe and a few other nations the population is actually in decline.  The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria has already been successful reducing the prevalence of HIV. Infant mortality has also gone down 10-25% in most developing nations to 44.14 globally with a high of 180.21 in Angola and low of 2.32 in Singapore.  The overall literacy rate has risen to 82%, 87% for men and 77% for women however in the United States the ability of college graduates to compose prose documents has declined from 40% a decade ago to 30% in 2008.  The World Prison Brief reports that in 2010 the total global penal population was 9.778 million, an average of 144 people per 100,000 were behind bars.  The highest concentration of prisoners per 100,000 occurs in the Americas with (374), mostly because the United States’ (753) is the most populous and concentrated in the world, and Europe (294).  The lowest rates of incarceration are in the Middle East and Central Asia (61).  The Russian Republic (609) has been declining with some relapse.  The state prison population declined for the first time in 30 years in 2009 although the federal penitentiary continued to grow.  The US, Russian and all other legal systems over the arbitrary legal limit of 250 detainees per 100,000 need to make a concerted effort to safely commute detainees to halfway houses and compensate victims of false arrest and torture thereby reducing the prison population and staying out of trouble.   

 

Table 1: Global Recession 2009

Nations

Territory

Population

GDP

billion

Per capita

Income

ODA 2008

million

Government

Constitutive Documents Date of Independence

 

World Political

Vital Stat

Economics

6,788,879,813

70,239

$10,348

125,114

-91,102

United Nations

 

South East Asia

2,203,566,902

19,173

$8,700

12,916

-9,792

Association of South East Asian Nations

25

Middle East & Central Asia

1,934,348,065
8,263

$4,272

2,124

-31,104

Organization of Islamic Conferences

45

Europe

731,782,548

18,257

$24,975

78,447

-4,186

European Union

54

Africa

 

991,760,344

2,835.2

$2,858

-38,806

African Union

51

America

927,421,954

21,711

$23,420

31,627

-7,214

Organization of American States

Sources: CIA World Factbook July 2009, World Prison Brief 18 March 2010, OECD Development Aid at a Glance 2010

Historical Records: HA-2010, HA-2007, HA-2006

 

Without any work from either myself or the UN Human Development Report whose Fighting climate change: Human solidarity in a divided world 2007/2008 conspicuously took two years, economic growth declined 0.8% in 2009.  It was the first global downturn since WWII.  The food and fuel crises in 2007-2008 and the global financial and economic crisis of 2009 pushed 100 million people in low-income countries into poverty as a result of a doubling of food prices.  The number of hungry people worldwide rose from 842 million in 1990-1992 to 873 million in 2004-2006 and to 1.02 billion people during 2009, the highest level ever.  The IMF assures us however that global economic recovery is stable with 1.7% growth in the first quarter and 3.2% in the second quarter of 2010.   The credit crisis affected both industrialized and developing nations.  Its primary characteristic was a panic amongst foreign occupying powers, who, struggling with high oil prices and opiate relieving pain and social breakdown from the conquerors of the Soviet Union, spuriously decided to nationalize several banks, squandering the sovereign immunity from bankruptcy on the large banking corporations the prior administration laundered his funds with, at great expense to the free market.  The side effects of the bank nationalizations valued at $4 trillion in 2009, and $1 trillion in 2010, were immediate massive flights of capital from the stock markets, quickly leading to layoffs and high unemployment, negative economic growth and record government spending and budget deficits valued at 7% of GWP in 2009.  By strengthening industrialized currencies, instead of devaluating to offset the printing of money, the crisis was not only devastating to international trade, that dropped 25%, but spread to developing nations, who without the resources to bail out their financial sectors nor a social safety net for the unemployed, could not compete.   Liberal democracies must compensate those emerging markets marginalized by the market distortion.     

 

Table 2: Top 20 Losers of 2009, in billions

#

Country

GDP PPP

Growth

Rate

Loss Value

#

Country

GDP

Growth Rate

Loss Value

1

United States

14,260

-2.4%

342.24

11

Netherlands

654.9

-3.9%

25.54

2

Japan

4,137

-5.3%

219.26

12

Romania

255.4

-7.2%

18.39

3

Russia

2,116

-7.9%

167.16

13

Sweden

333.5

-4.4%

14.67

4

Germany

2,811

-5%

140.55

14

Finland

182.6

-7.6%

13.88

5

United Kingdom

2,149

-4.8%

103.15

15

Ireland

176.9

-7.5%

13.27

6

Mexico

1,482

-6.5%

96.33

16

Hungary

184.9

-6.7%

12.39

7

Italy

1,760

-4.8%

84.48

17

Belgium

381

-3.1%

11.81

8

Spain

1,368

-3.6%

49.25

18

Austria

323.1

-3.5%

11.31

9

Ukraine

294.3

-14.1%

41.50

19

Czech Republic

256.6

-4.1%

10.52

10

Canada

1,285

-2.5%

32.13

20

Venezuela

350.1

-2.9%

10.15

Source: World Economics HA-2010
 
To analyze the 0.8% global economic contraction of 2009, 83 of 211 reporting nations exhibited negative GDP growth.  
The biggest GDP losses of 2009 occurred in Eastern Europe, Latvia (-17.8%), Lithuania (-15%) and Estonia (-14.1%) 
EU members, Ukraine (-14.1%), Moldova (-7.7%) and Russia (-7.9%).  Many major economies exhibited significantly 
negative economic growth, Finland (-7.6%), Ireland (-7.5%), Mexico (-6.5%), Japan (-5.3%), Germany (-5.0%), United 
Kingdom (-4.8%), and Italy (-4.8%), United Arab Emirate (-3.5%), Canada (-2.5%), the United States (-2.4%), France 
(-2.2%) and Greece (-2%).  The United States reported the biggest loss in dollar value, a GDP $342.24 billion less than 
in 2008, Japan came in second losing $29.26 billion and Russia came in third losing $167.16 billion.  The GDPs of the 
top 20 losers had a combined value of $34.8 trillion, 49.5% of GWP.  The total GDP loss suffered by this group of 20 
was $1.4 trillion, 4.1% of group GDP and 1.9% of GWP.  As a whole developing nations exhibited strong growth 
despite a decline in world oil and commodity prices, Azerbaijan (+32.5%), Qatar (+9.5%), China (+8.7%), Vietnam 
(+7.8%), India (+6.5%), Djibouti (+6.4%) and Indonesia (+4.5%) recorded the biggest gains, while growth continued 
in least developed countries.  Note, the exchange rate devaluation was unfair and GDP purchasing power and per capita 
income, in many developing nations, declined although their economic growth rates were positive.   
 

Table 3: 20 Biggest Borrowers of 2009, in billions

#

Country

Deficit

Deficit

% GDP

Debt

% GDP

GDP Ex. rate

#

Country

Deficit

Deficit

% GDP

Debt

% GDP

GDP Ex. rate

1

United States

-1,701

-11.8%

52.9%

14,430

11

Netherlands

-37.1

-5%

62.2%

799

2

Japan

-383

-7.5%

192.1%

5,108

12

Greece

-36.5

-11%

113.4%

342.2

3

United Kingdom

-312.1

-14%

68.5%

2,224

13

Korea, South

-35.7

-4.4

28%

809.7

4

France

-216

-8.1%

79.7%

2,666

14

Turkey

-35.5

-5.8%

48.5%

608

5

China

-164.7

-3.4%

18.2%

4,814

15

Australia

-34.8

-3.7%

18.6%

930.8

6

Germany

-142

-4.3%

77.2%

3,273

16

Canada

-32.7

-2.4%

72.3%

1,335

7

Spain

-115.9

-7.9%

50%

1,466

17

Ireland

-29.78

-13%

63.7%

229.4

8

Italy

-107.9

-5%

115.2%

2,114

18

Venezuela

-26.9

-7.5%

19.4%

357.6

9

India

-107.3

-9.8%

59.6%

1,095

19

Belgium

-26

-7%

99%

366.9

10

Russia

-101.3

-8.2%

6.9%

1,232

20

Mexico

-19.6

-28%

37.7%

1,017

Source: World Economics HA-2010
 
Fiscal stimulus packages worth about $4 trillion in 2009, 7% of GWP, nationalized many banks in Western Europe and the 
United States.  The combined global budget deficit for 2009 amounts to 7% of GWP and more than half, 125 of 236 nations, 
had deficits greater than 3%.  $3.6 trillion, 90% of the $4 trillion bailout, went to the nations with the 20 largest budget deficits 
in dollar value.  This group of 20’s combined GDPs totaled $45.2 trillion, 64.3% of the GWP at purchasing power and 80% 
at exchange rate value.  The total budget deficit of these major economies was 8.1% of the groups total GDP and 6.6% of the 
GWP.  Another $1 trillion has already been withdrawn from the free market for Spain, Portugal and Greece in 2010.  
Government budgets and budget deficits have dramatically expanded, at the expense of the free market.  Declining revenues 
and the costs of nationalizing banks have led to many budget deficits in Western nations exceeding the European Union limit 
of 3% of GDP.  The budget deficit in the United States, 11.8% of GDP, has the highest dollar value in the world at $1,701 
billion.  Japan -$383 billion (-7.5%), the United Kingdom -$312.1 billion (14%) and France -$212 billion (3.4%) followed 
close behind.  The nations with the highest deficits as % of GDP were Zimbabwe (38%), Iraq (27.6%), Palestine (21.8%), 
Eritrea (20%), Bhutan (19%), Afghanistan (17%), United Kingdom ((14%), the Baltic Republics, Slovakia (15.2%), 10.8% 
in Latvia (11%) and the United States (11.8%). 
 

 Table 4: Regional Budget Totals, 2009

Region

GDP

Ex. rate

trillions

Budget Revenue billions

Budget Expense billions

Surplus

Deficit

billions

Deficit % GDP

Ex. rate

World

54,184.4

15,463

19,385

-3,922

-7.2%

Africa

1,449.4

369.07

420.81

-51.7

-3.6%

America

16,200

3,295

5,089

-1,794

-11%

Europe

18,744

7,357

8,563

-1,206

-6.4%

Middle East and Central Asia

3,885

939.1

1,121.6

-182.5

-4.7%

South East Asia

13,906

3,502.5

4,190.4

-687.9

-0.5%

Source: World Economics HA-2010
 
The Great Recession of 2009 was mostly demanded by the 11.8% of GDP deficit of the United States’, valued at 
$1,701 billion, driving the pan-American budget deficit to 11%, the most in the world of 7.2% deficits.  Europe had 
a 6.4% deficit, Middle East and Central Asia 4.7%, Africa 3.6% leaving Asia 0.5%, alone within the 3% limit of the EU.  
Governments are spending more than they are earning in revenues.  Governments have only two ways to finance the 
deficit, taking investors from the stock market or by printing money.   By keeping their currency strong, to stave off 
oil prices, governments decided to finance the deficit with the stock market, rather than to print the money and 
devaluate to stimulate exports and manufacturing.  As a result of investment lost to capital markets labor markets 
were slashed, cutting consumer income and spending and consequently government revenues  The Federal Budget 
in Balance FY 2009-2012 encourages governments to calculate reasonable agency spending increases, eg. 3% per 
year, from the last year the deficit was within the arbitrary limit of 3% of the GDP, as the baseline year.  States must 
relinquish private holdings, reduce military spending and eliminate all offensive operations to cut spending to pre-war 
levels.  America Political Economy 2010 indicates States have two sources of revenues, old-fashioned customs duties 
and sales taxes or newfangled Marxist individual and corporate income taxes.  To foster a consumer economy States 
must exempt the poor from income taxes to tax the incomes of the rich and the profitable corporations in the act of 
making more money than their family needs.  Commodity taxes and protectionist tariffs are riskier and may constitute 
a combination in restraint of trade, ie. Smoot-Hawly Tariff Act of 1932 is widely believed to have caused the last global 
depression.
 

Table 5: Global Stock Market Values 2007-2009

 

GDP PPP

trillion

Unem

ploy

ment

Public Debt % GDP

Stock of Money

trillion

Stock of Quasi Money

trillions

Stock of Domestic Credit trillion

Publicly Traded Shares trillions

Exports

trillions

Imports

trillions

External Debt

trillions

Direct Foreign Investment

2009

70.29

8.7

56%

 

 

 

 

12.09

12.03

56.9

 

2008

70.84

7.2

48.9%

 

 

 

 

15.94

15.99

60.83

16.36

2007

68.81

 

 

12.35

27.31

69.9

64.99

 

 

 

17.05

Source: CIA World Fact Book - World July 2009

 
Free capital resources were drained by the bailout of the industrialized financial sector. Record contractions in stock and labor 
markets were reported, exacerbating the exact contraction of economic growth, subsidies were intended to ameliorate.  As 
consequence to this vicious cycle, industrialized governments contracted an unhealthy interest in keeping their currency strong 
and developing nation currencies were unfairly devalued.  Although growth remains strong, devaluation resulted in 
disproportionately less purchasing power in many developing nations in the form of high food prices.  To offset the distorting 
effects of the financial sector bailouts, beyond the reach of ODA, the only countermeasure available to developing nations and 
emerging markets is to appreciate their currencies against the industrialized nation currency basket.  This would increase the 
exchange rate GDP and per capita of consumers in developing nations to afford more food and industrial technology on the 
international market.  Appreciation would expand industrialized markets to billions of consumers in developing nations, 
stimulating growth. Nations would need to be classified into four categories, industrialized with per capita >$20,000, middle 
income <$20,000 but >$10,000, developing <$10,000 and least developed <$1,000.  Industrialized nations would collectively 
redress three decades of depreciation of developing nation currencies and middle income nations could decide which direction 
they wish to go on the basis of their trade balance.  Economic progress caused by appreciating the exchange rate GDP would 
be monitored as purchasing power parity GDP.  Although ODA would be devalued, developing nations would mathematically 
have more purchasing power and the whole world would have greater exchange rate GDP.  If this experiment works currency 
appreciation can hasten global economic equality in regular increments.  Although the needs of least developed nations will still 
need to be met with ODA the independence of currency appreciation may prove to be a more sustainable method to make large 
jumps in per capita purchasing power.  Appreciation will get us back into the grace of Goal 1.

 

Table 6: MDGs for 2015 Progress Report 1990 & 2005

Primary Indicator

1990

2005

Goal

Goal 1: Halve Poverty <$1 day

45.5%

21.5%

22.75%

Goal 2: Universal Primary Education

82.0%

89.0%

90.0%

Goal 3: 1.0 Gender Ratio in Education

0.89

0.96

1.00

Goal 4: Reduce Child Mortality 2/3

9.3%

6.7%

3.1%

Goal 5: Reduce Maternal Mortality 3/4

430

400

143

Goal 6: Halt & Reverse Spread of AIDS

8

33.3

< 

Goal 7: Halve Lack of Access to H20

77%

87%

88.5%

Goal 8: Develop Global Partnership

52.7

107.1

> 

Sources: UN Millennium Development Goal Report 2009

 

The adoption of the Millennium Declaration in 2000 by 189 States Members of the United Nations, 147 of which were represented by their Head of State, was a defining moment for global cooperation in the twenty-first century. The Declaration gave birth to a set of eight goals that break down into 21 quantifiable targets that are measured by 61 indicators, known as the Millennium Development Goals to End Poverty for 2015.  The eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) –have galvanized unprecedented efforts to meet the needs of the poorest.  The UN Millennium Development Goal Report 2009 brings into question whether Goal 1 to halve poverty, <$1 day, from 45.5% in 1990 to 22.75% in 2015, has been jeopardized by the recession.  In 2007, only 21.5% were extremely poor, however the recession plunged 100 million more people below $1 a day and poverty increased to 22.9%, so Goal 1 was not achieved in 2009.  Both 90% primary school enrollment rate and 50% reduction in people needing water are both achievable if current rates of growth are sustained.  The AIDS drugs arrived and rates of infection and death went down.  To achieve all the health related goals the utility bill for water and sewage connections must be paid, folic acid multi-vitamins be damned.  The short term plan for 2010 is for the bailouts to cease and ODA to exceed the $154 billion committed.  The long term plan is to levy a carbon tax to finance eco-friendly water, sewage and electricity (solar) connections in slums by 2030.  The medium term plan to finance the MDGs for 2015 is for the U.S. Dollar and Euro basket to experimentally appreciate developing nation currencies - equalizing exchange rate GDP with purchasing power parity GDP rate, in hopes of making nutritious food available at affordable prices.

 

Table 7: Goal 1 Number and % of People in Poverty and Hungry, 1990 & 2007

Region

Pop. Million

1990

% Pop. <$1.25

1990

Pop.

<$1.25

1990

% Hungry

1990

Pop.

Million

2007

% Pop <$1.25

2007

Pop.

<$1.25

% Hungry

1990

% Pop <$2

2007

Pop.

<$2

East Asia & Pacific

1,600

80%

1,280

15

1,912

16.8%

321

10

38.7%

740

Europe and Central Asia

400

2%

8

6

442

3.7%

16

<5

8.9%

39

Latin America and Caribbean

400

11.3%

45.2

12

556

8.2%

46

8

17.1%

95

Middle East and North Africa

200

4.3%

9

8

319

3.6%

12

8

16.9%

54

South Asia

1,100

52%

572

24

1,523

40.3%

614

21

73.9%

1,125

Sub-Saharan Africa

500

57%

285

32

819

50.9%

417

29

72.9%

597

OECD

900

0%

0%

<5

965

0%

0%

<5

0%

0

World

5,300

45.5%

2,412

16

6,620

21.5%

1,426

14

40%

2,650

Source: World Bank 2007, The Millennium Development Goals Report 2009 Goal 1 Indicator 1.1 & 1.9

 

The World Bank revalued poverty from living on less than US$1.25 per day (PPP) in 2005 dollars, up from $1.06 in 1990 dollars, and moderate poverty as less than $2 a day. It has been estimated that in 2008, 1.4 billion people had consumption levels below US$1.25 a day and 2.7 billion lived on less than $2 a day. The primary objective of the MDGs, Goal 1 is “Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer hunger or live in extreme poverty of less than $1 a day” the goal is broken down into three targets, a. Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than one dollar a day. B. Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all, including women and young people.  C. Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger.  The Secretary General’s February 2010 Report: Keeping the promise: a forward-looking review to promote an agreed action agenda to achieve the Millennium Development Goals by 2015 reports there were still 1.4 billion people living in extreme poverty in 2005, down from 1.8 billion in 1990.  However, as China has accounted for most of this decrease, without China, progress does not look very encouraging; in fact, the number of people living in extreme poverty actually went up between 1990 and 2005 by about 36 million. The number of “$1 a day poor” went up by 92 million in sub-Saharan Africa and by 8 million in West Asia during the period 1990 to 2005.  Eastern Europe suffered a decline in purchasing power after independence and the number of extremely poor rose from 2% to 3.7%. Since the 2009 crisis 300 million new jobs will be needed to bring employment back to pre-crisis levels.  In sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia, poverty and hunger remain stubbornly high.  The number of hungry people worldwide rose from 842 million in 1990-1992 to 873 million in 2004-2006 and to 1.02 billion people during 2009, the highest level ever.  852 million people, mainly in the developing world, are still chronically or acutely malnourished. Most of them are in Asia, particularly India (221 million) and China (142 million). Sub-Saharan Africa has 204 million hungry and is the only region of the world where hunger is increasing.  Nonetheless, if the economic crisis is reasonably redressed the primary target of Goal 1 to halve the “proportion of people living in extreme poverty by 2015” was achieved by 2007, failed in 2009, but quite achievable with ODA and currency appreciation.

 

Table 8: Goals 2 & 3 Equal Access to Primary Education, Gender, Literacy 1990 & 2007 

Primary School

Enrollment

Completion

Ratio Girls to Boys 1991

Ratio Girls to Boys 2007

Enrollment Rate

1991

Enrollment Rate

2007

Completion Rate

1999

Completion Rate

2007

Literacy

1990

Male/Female

Literacy

2007

Male/Female

World

0.89

0.96

82.0%

89.0%

81.7%

87.3%

82.4% 70.0%

88.4%  79.4%

Developing

0.87

0.95

79.6%

88.1%

78.9%

85.8%

76.6% 59.1%

85.4% 73.4%

Northern Africa

0.82

0.94

82.8%

95.6%

86.6%

95.1%

61.4% 35.7%

77.3% 58.3%

Sub-Saharan Africa

0.83

0.90

53.5%

73.5%

49.9%

63.1%

63.1% 45.0%

71.1% 53.8%

Latin America & Caribbean

0.99

0.97

86.7%

94.9%

96.6%

100.4%

87.7% 85.6%

91.7% 90.3%

East Asia and Pacific

0.94

0.99

96%

95.2%

101.8%

100.7%

87.8% 70.1%

96.6% 90.5%

South Asia

0.77

0.95

71.9%

89.8%

66.9%

80.6%

60.1% 34.0%

74.4% 53.3%

Europe and Central Asia

0.99

0.99

90.0%

93.6%

95.9%

96.6%

99.4% 97.2%

99.6% 99.1%

OECD

0.99

1.00

97.9%

96.4%

99.2%

98.6%

99.4% 98.8%

99.5% 99.2%

Source: The Millennium Development Goals Report 2009 Indicator 2.1, 2.2, 2.3 & 3.1

 

Goals 2 “Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling” and Goal 3, “to ‘eliminate’ gender disparity in primary and secondary education as soon as 2005 were idealistic.  Nonetheless there has been remarkable progress towards achieving universal primary education in developing countries since 1990, with many countries having crossed the 90 per cent enrolment threshold.  Enrolment in primary education has increased fastest in sub-Saharan Africa, from 54 per cent in 1990 to 74 per cent in 2007.  Truancy remains a problem and more than 72 million children of primary school age around the world, about half of them in sub-Saharan Africa, remain out of school. Furthermore, dropout rates remain high in many countries, implying that achieving 100 per cent primary school completion rates remains a challenge, but remedial courses are always an option.  Use of the Internet has increased steadily, with almost one fourth of the world’s population having Internet access. However, less than 18 per cent of the population in developing countries was using the Internet (and only 4 per cent in the least developed countries), compared with over 60 per cent in developed countries. The gender gap in primary school enrolment has narrowed in the past decade, albeit at a slow pace. In developing countries in 2007, over 95 girls of primary school age were in school for every 100 boys, compared with 91 in 1999. Progress in secondary schooling has been slower, and in some regions, gaps are widening. In sub-Saharan Africa, the percentage of enrolment of girls compared with boys in secondary education fell from 82 per cent in 1999 to 79 per cent in 2007.  Only 53 of the 171 countries with available data had achieved gender parity in both primary and secondary education, 14 more than in 1999.   The share of national parliamentary seats held by women has increased only slowly, averaging 18 per cent as at January 2009. While this is far from the 30 percent target envisioned in the Beijing Platform for Action, it represents a rise from 11 per cent 10 years earlier.  At the present rate it will take another 40 years for developing countries to reach between 40 and 60 per cent share of parliamentary seats for women.

 

Table 9: Goals 4 & 5 Maternal, Infant, and Child Mortality 1990 & 2008

Region

Maternal Mortality

P. 00,000

1990

Maternal Mortality

p 00,000

2005

Maternal Mortality

% Change

’90-‘05

Infant  <1 Mortality

Per 000

1990

Infant <1 Mortality

Per 000

2008

Infant <1 Mortality

% Change

‘90-‘07

Child <5 Mortality

Per 000

1990

Child <5 Mortality

Per 000

2008

Child <5 Mortality

% Change

’00-‘08

World Average

430

400

-6.9%%

62

45

-27.4%

93

67

-27.7%

Latin America & Caribbean

190

130

-31.5%

42

19

-54.8%

42

23

-45.2%

Arab States

270

240

-11.1%

57

33

-42.1%

77

43

-44.2%

Sub-Saharan Africa

940

900

-4.3%

108

86

-20.4%

184

144

-21.7%

South Asia

650

500

-23.1%

88

57

-35.2%

124

76

-38.7%

Far East & Pacific

230

150

-34.8%

41

22

-46.3%

44

28

-36.4%

OECD

13

8

-38.5%

8

5

-37.5%

10

6

-40%

Sources:  UNICEF. State of the World’s Children: 20 Years on the Convention of the Rights of the Child Statistical Tables: Basic Indicators & Women. November 2009

 

To achieve MDG 4 child mortality would need to go down by 53.5%, or 7.6% annually where average annual decline for the past 18 years has been only 1.54%.  Infant mortality statistics for children under one year of age are much rosier in the Factbook.  Although Angola, the nation where the most infants died per 1,000 born, suffered 191.2 infant deaths in 2006 and 180.21 in 2009, a reduction of 5.8%, in that same time period nearly all other nations improved, many by as much as 25% over 3 years.  MDG 5 calls for a reduction in the maternal mortality ratio by three-quarters between 1990 and 2015. At the present rate of progress, the world will fall well short of the target for maternal mortality reduction.  During the 15 years between base year 1990 and 2005 maternal mortality decreased only 6.9%, 0.46% annually.  MDG 4 aims, by 2015, to reduce by two-thirds the mortality rate among children under-5.  Deaths among children under five years of age have been reduced from 12.5 million per year (1990) to 8.8 million (2008).  Although substantial progress has been made, during the 18 years between base year 1990 and 2008 the child mortality rate declined only 27.7%.  The goal is one third of 90 – 30.  Improvements in public health services are essential, including safe water, nutrition and better sanitation. Education, especially for girls and mothers, will also save children's lives.  To theoretically improve maternal and child survival rates is to ensure all pregnant and breastfeeding women have access to a one year supply of multi-vitamins containing folic acid.  While no substitute for a nutritious diet or clean water for drinking and washing, multi-vitamins with folic acid can supplement a diet of rice to improve the chances of a complication free birth and healthy baby.  These child health related development goals are otherwise tied to hygiene, nutrition, obstetric and pediatric training and vaccination and the availability of clean water and sewage.  The global cost of maternal and child health in developing countries can be minimized by collectively investing in folic acid multi-vitamins and vaccinations, +/- $10 billion globally, annually, $5 billion in Sub-Saharan Africa, where maternal and child mortality is highest.      

 

Table 10: Goal 6 HIV/AIDS Pandemic Eases Between 2004 & 2007

Nation

Life

Ex.

2006

Life

Ex.

2009

% Change

2004- 2007

HIV

% Pop.

2004

HIV

% Pop.

2007

%

Change

2004- 2007

HIV

Death

000s

2004

HIV

Death

000s

2007

% Change

2004- 2007

HIV Death

per 000

2004

HIV

Death per 000

2007

% Change

2004-2007

Botswana

33.9

61.85

82.5%

37.3%

23.9%

-35.9%

350

300

-14.3%

33

11

-66.6%

Central-African Republic

43.4

44.47

2.3%

13.5%

6.7%

-46.6%

260

160

-38.5%

23

1

-95.7%

Guinea-Bissau

46.6

47.9

2.8%

10%

1.8%

-82%

17

16

-5.9%

1.2

1.1

-8.3%

Lesotho

34.5

40.38

17%

28.9%

23.2%

-19.7%

320

270

-15.6%

29

18

-37.9%

Malawi

41.3

50.03

21.1%

14.2%

11.9%

-16.2%

900

930

3.3%

84

68

-19.1%

Mozambique

40.3

41.18

2.2%

12.2%

12.5%

2.5%

1,300

1,500

15.4%

110

81

-26.4%

Namibia

43.9

51.24

16.7%

21.3%

15.3%

-28.2%

210

1,300

519%

16

140

775%

South Africa

43.3

48.98

13.1%

21.5%

18.1%

-15.8

3,600

5,700

58.3%

370

350

-6.8%

Swaziland

33.2

47.85

44.1%

38.8%

26.1%

-32.7%

5,300

190

-96.4%

17

10

-41.2%

Zambia

39.7

38.63

2.7%

16.5%

15.2%

-7.9%

220

1,100

400%

89

56

-37.1%

Zimbabwe

39.1

45.77

17.1%

24.6%

15.3%

-37.8%

920

200

-78.3%

170

5.1

-97%

Sources: 2006 African Vital Statistics HA-9-3-6, 2009 World Vital Statistics HA-23-5-10

 

The good news- the $8-10 billion invested in the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria Fund 2005-2008 increased the number of people in low and middle-income countries receiving antiretroviral therapy for HIV 10-fold in five years (2003-2008).  The Factbook reports there was a reduction in the prevalence of HIV/AIDS worldwide between 2004 and 2007, of particularly significance to highly affected South African Customs Revenue Service dependent governments. The United Nations however reports the number of people living with HIV rose from an estimated 29.5 million in 2001 to 33 million in 2007 and it remains to be seen if they can concede to the Factbook statistics in fulfillment of Goal 6 of the MDGs “of achieving universal access to treatment for HIV/AIDS by 2010 and of halting and reversing.8 the spread of HIV/AIDS by 2015”.   Encouraging news reports indicate a full recovery is possible with a healthy skepticism of readily available treatment.  According to the CIA, both infection and mortality rates in Botswana dropped from 37.3% to 23.9% (-36%) and life expectancy increased from 33.9 to 61.85 (+82.5%), between 2001 and 2007;  during the same time period Swaziland rates dropped from 38.8% infected to 26.1% (-32.7%) and life expectancy increased from 33.2 to 47.85 (+44.1%); in Zimbabwe incidence dropped from 24.6% to 15.3% (-37%) and life expectancy increased from 39.1 to 45.77 (+17.1); South Africa from 21.5% to 18.1% (-15%) while  life expectancy dropped from 43.3 to 48.98 (+13.1%).  In Washington DC, the HIV positive population is reported to have risen above 5%, the highest in the United States, where less than 1% of the population is infected; although they give asylum to the Court of International Trade of the United States (CoITUS) (so named in the Customs Court Act of 1980).

 

Table 11: Goal 7 Environment Compared with 1990

Region

Forest

Land

1990

Forest Land

2005

CO2 106 Ton

1990

CO2 106Ton

2005

Ozone Abuse

1990

Ozone

Abuse

2005

H20

Used

2000

Protect

Areas

2006

World

31.3%

30.3%

21,899

28,013

 

 

 

12.1%

Developing

 

 

6,803

13,817

247,536

55,419

6.7%

13.0%

North Africa

1.3%

1.5%%

232

437

6,203

1,972

77.5%

3.7%

Sub-Saharan Africa

29.2%

26.5%

465

652

23,449

1,295

2.2%

11.5 %

Latin America and Caribbean

50.2%

46.3%

1,078

1,449

76,048

7,386

1.4%

21.0%

East Asia

16.5%

19.8%

2,940

6,235

103,217

29,870

21.4%

14.0%

South Asia

14.0%

14.2%

1,009

2,051

3,338

4,408

26.6%

5.6%

South Eastern Asia

56.3%

46.8%

427

1,045

21,108

3,299

4.5%

7.5%

Western Asia

3.3%

3.5%

646

1,127

11,470

6,979

47.5%

17.9%

Europe and  Central Asia

38.6%

38.6%

3,796

2,303

139,454

1,672

5.4%

7.6%

Oceania

68.3%

63.4%

6

11

47

33

0.0%

7.2%

OECD

30.4%

30.8%

11,173

12,979

826,801

4,793

9.3%

16.9%

Sources: The Millennium Development Goals Report 2009 Indicator 7.1, 7.2, 7.3, 7.5 & 7.6

 

Goal 7 is, “to integrate the principles of sustainable development into country policies and programs to reverse loss of environmental resources”.   Biodiversity loss has been slowed somewhat, and between 1990 and 2005 the percent of forested land has declined 1% from 31.3% to 30.3% while the protected terrestrial and marine habitats have risen to 12.1%.  The primary concern since 1990 has been climate change.  Concern for Ozone depleting fluorocarbons led to the replacement of these products with more ozone friendly products and between 1990 and 2005 ozone depleting substances released into the atmosphere decreased from 826,801 to 4,7793 in OECD nations and from 247,536 to 55,419 in developing nations.  Climate change however continued unabated.  Some 262 million people were affected by climate disasters annually from 2000 to 2004, over 98 percent of them in the developing world. In the OECD countries one in 1,500 people was affected by climate disaster, while in developing countries the ratio is one in 19—a risk differential of 79.  Scientists turned their scrutiny upon CO2 emissions (greenhouse gases) from the burning of fossil fuels upon which the economy is dependant.  Current concentrations of CO2 have reached 380 parts per million (ppm).  If ppm reaches 750 parts per million, average global temperatures could increase by more than 5°C. The threshold for dangerous climate change is an increase of around 2°C.  Un-redressed, energy-related CO2 emissions could rise by more than 50 percent over 2005 levels by 2030.  The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) global carbon budget for energy-related emissions would amount to around 14.5 Gt CO2 annually, however current emissions amounted to 28 Gt .in 2005, up from 22 Gt in 1990.  Avoiding dangerous climate change will require rich nations to cut emissions by at least 80 percent, with cuts of 30 percent by 2020.  Emissions from developing countries would peak around 2020, with cuts of 20 percent by 2050.  To reach the global target of a 2.2-2.7 per cent reduction in energy intensity, developed countries need to reduce their energy intensity by 2.2-2.4% a year, double the 1.2% per cent reduction between 1990 and 2007.  At the global level, the energy system – supply, transformation, delivery and use – is the dominant contributor to climate change, representing around 60 per cent of total current greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.  The central message is that the international community must come together in a common effort to cease exploiting alternatives to solar power and transform to solar energy over the coming decades.

 

 

Table 14: Goal 7B H2O and Sanitation Access 1990 & 2006

Region

Access to H2O

1990

Access to H2O

2006

Access to H2O

Goal

Sanitary

Access

1990

Sanitary

Access

2006

Sanitary

Access

Goal

Slum

Living

1990

Slum Living

2005

World

77%

87%

88.5%

54%

62%

78%

 

 

Developing

71%

84%

85.5%

41%

53%

70.5%

46.3%

35.7%

North Africa

85%

92%

92.5%

62%

76%

86%

36.2%

14.5%

Sub-Saharan Africa

49%

58%

74.5%

26%

31%

63%

71.5%

62.2%

Latin America and Caribbean

84%

92%

92%

68%

79%

84%

33.7%

27.0%

East Asia

68%

85%

84%

48%

65%

74%

43.7%

36.5%

South Asia

74%

87%

87%

21%

33%

60.5%

57.2%

42.9%

South Eastern Asia

73%

86%

86.5%

50%

67%

75%

49.5%

34.2%

Western Asia

86%

90%

94%

79%

84%

89.5%

22.5%

25.8%

Europe and  Central Asia

93%

94%

96.5%

90%

89%

95%

 

 

Oceania

51%

50%

75.5%

52%

52%

76%

 

24.1%

OECD

98%

99%

99%

99%

99%

99.5%

 

 

Sources: The Millennium Development Goals Report 2009 Indicator 7.8, 7.9 & 7.10

 

Goal 7 a & b. are, a. Reduce by half the proportion of people without sustainable access to drinking water and b. Achieve significant improvements in the lives of at least 100-million slum dwellers worldwide by 2020”. Human Development Report 2006: Beyond scarcity: Power, poverty and the global water crisis, found some 1.1 billion people in developing countries have inadequate access to water, and 2.6 billion lack basic sanitation.  Even if the targets are achieved, there will still be more than 800 million people without water and 1.8 billion people without sanitation in 2015.  Every year some 1.8 million children die as a result of diarrhea and other diseases caused by unclean water and poor sanitation. Water purification explains almost half the mortality reduction in the United States in the first third of the 20th century. In Great Britain the expansion of sanitation contributed to a 15-year increase in life expectancy in the four decades after 1880. In 1990, 77% of the population had access to water and in 2006 that number had risen to 87%, 96% urban and 78% rural.  In aggregate the world is on track for the target for water largely because of strong progress in China and India, but only two regions are on track for sanitation (East Asia and Latin America).  In 1990 in aggregate 54% of the world population had access to sanitation and in 2006 that number had risen to 62%, 79% in urban areas and 45% in rural areas. On current trends Sub-Saharan Africa will reach the water target in 2040 and the sanitation target in 2076.  For Sub-Saharan Africa to get on track, connection rates for water will have to rise from 10 million a year in the past decade to 23 million a year in the next decade. South Asia’s rate of sanitation provision will have to rise from 25 million people a year to 43 million a year.  The additional costs of achieving the water and sewage related Millennium Development Goal is estimated at $10 billion a year, about 15% of total ODA should go for new water, sewer and electric connections and other public works, 10% for vaccines and pharmaceuticals and 25% for education, leaving 50% for food and cash benefits.

 

Table 13: Industrial Power Supply 2009

Industrial Production Growth

Electricity Production

Electricity Consumption

Electricity Exports

Electricity Imports

-2.7% (2009)

19.25 trillion kWh (2007)

17.93 trillion kWh (2007)

615.4 billion kWh (2008)

613.9 billion kWh (2008)

Oil Production

Oil Consumption

Oil Exports

Oil Imports

Oil Proved Reserves

87.51 million bbl/day (2008)

84.34 million bbl/day (2008)

61.96 million bbl/day (2007)

66.5 million bbl/day (2007)

1.365 trillion bbl (2009)

Natural Gas Production

Natural Gas Consumption

Natural Gas Exports

Natural Gas Imports

Natural Gas Proved Reserves

3.127 trillion cu. M (2008)

3.073 trillion cu. M (2008)

949.9 billion cu. M (2008)

947.2 billion cu. M (2008)

182.1 trillion cu. M (2009)

Source: CIA World Fact Book - World July 2009

 

Clean, efficient, affordable and reliable energy services are indispensable for global prosperity. Developing countries in particular need to expand access to reliable and modern energy services if they are to reduce poverty and improve the health of their citizens with more affordable water and sewage connections. Worldwide, about 1.5 billion people still lack access to electricity, and around 2.5 billion people rely on traditional biomass, such as dung or wood, for energy.  Modern sources of energy include fuels such as natural gas, liquid petroleum gas (LPG), diesel and biofuels such as biodiesel and bioethanol. Technology, such as improved cooking stoves, can also enable cleaner and more efficient delivery of traditional fuels.  Currently most power sector investment is made by government-owned or private, usually regulated, electric utilities.  The $20 trillion projected to be spent between 2004 and 2030 to meet energy demand could lock the world on to an unsustainable trajectory.  Ten percent of this, $200 – 210 billion will be necessary in 2030 to return global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to current levels, 0.3 to 0.5% of global domestic product in 2030 and 1.1 - 1.7% of global investment in 2030. About $148 billion out of the $432 billion of projected annual investment in power sector is predicted to be shifted to renewables, carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS), nuclear energy, wind, hydro and solar power.  Raising fuel efficiency standards by 20 miles per gallon would cut oil consumption by 3.5 million barrels a day and save 400 Mt CO2 emissions a year.  Carbon Capture and Storage (CSS) is holds out the promise of coal-fired power generation with near-zero emissions.  For energy efficiency it is estimated $30-35 billion of capital is required for low-income countries and $140-170 billion for middle-income countries annually until 2030.  Implementation can be done with great speed and intensity:  In the early 90s, China was electrifying over 30 villages a day Viet Nam granted almost 400 people access to electricity per hour for 15 years, South Africa made a new grid connection every 30 seconds, placed a pole in the correct position every 10 seconds and strung 200m of cable every minute   If recent national trends in energy access continue, over the next 20 years an estimated 400 million people will gain access to electricity. 

 

Table 14: Goal 8 Global Partnership for Development 1990-2008

 

1990

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

ODA All Developing billion

52.7

58.3

69.1

79.4

107.1

104.4

103.5

119.8

ODA Least Developed billion

15.1

15.8

22.4

23.4

24.6

30.0

32.0

 

Developing Duty Free Exports

 

 

71%

 

 

 

83%

 

Developing Import Tariff

 

 

9.4%

 

8.8%

 

8.4%

 

OECD Agro-subsidy

2.03%

 

1.17%

1.13%

1.05%

0.97%

0.89%

 

Line Tel. Developing p. 100

2.3%

 

 

 

 

 

13.3%

 

Line Tel. Developed p. 100

42.4%

 

 

 

 

 

47.6%

 

Cellular Sub. Developing p. 100

(2000)

5.5%

 

 

 

38.6%

 

 

Cellular Sub. Developed p. 100

(2000)

47.8%

 

 

 

100%

 

 

Internet Developing p. 100

(2000)

2.1%

 

 

 

 

12.7%

 

Internet Developed p. 100

(2000)

29.9%

 

 

 

 

63.5%

 

Sources: The Millennium Development Goals Report 2009 Indicator 8.1, 8.6, 8.7, 8.14, 8.15 & 8.16

 

Goal 8 is, develop a partnership for global development.  The plan is A. to develop an open, rule-based, predictable, non-discriminatory trading and financial system and includes a commitment to good governance, development, and poverty reduction – both nationally and internationally.   B. To address the special needs of the least developed countries tariff and quota free access for exports; enhanced program of debt relief for HIPC and cancellation of official bilateral debt; and more generous ODA for poverty reduction.  C. Address the special needs of landlocked developing countries and small island developing States.  D. Deal comprehensively with the debt problems of developing countries through national and international measures in order to make debt sustainable in the long term.  E. In co-operation with pharmaceutical companies, provide access to affordable, essential drugs in developing countries.   Substantial progress has been made with regard to debt relief, but full delivery on the heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC) initiative requires continued efforts from the international community. By September 2009, 35 out of 40 eligible countries had qualified for debt relief under the initiative, 26 of which had qualified for irrevocable debt relief, totalling $57 billion under the HIPC initiative and $23 billion in additional debt relief under the MDR initiative.  Debt service as percent of the cost of exports of good and services have gone down from 19.1% in 1990 to 4.1% in 2007.  The proportion of developing nation exports admitted duty free has risen from 53% to 83% while the tariff barrier to imports has gone down from 10.4% to 8.4%.  OECD domestic agricultural subsidies have gone down from 2.03% in 1990 to 0.89% of GDP in 2007.  Cellular subscription in OECD countries has subsided somewhat since the recession due to cost and benefits lost to wiretapping and social decay.

 

Table 15: 26 ODA Donors 2003 & 2008

#

Country

ODA

2003

million

ODA

2003

% GDP

ODA

2008

million

ODA

2008

% GDP

#

Country

ODA

2003

million

ODA

2003

% GDP

ODA

2008

million

ODA

2008

% GDP

1

Australia

1,465

0.23%

2,954

0.32%

14

Luxembourg

241

0.88%

415

0.88%

2

Austria

1,024

0.4%

1,714

0.45%

15

Netherlands

4,235

1%

6,993

0.88%

3

Belgium

1,452

0.46%

2,386

0.65%

16

New Zealand

165

0.17%

348

0.32%

4

Canada

2,000

0.2%

4,785

0.34%

17

Norway

2,200

1.2%

3,963

1.1%

5

Denmark

2,025

1.2%

2,803

0.9%

18

Portugal

1,028

0.54%

620

0.28%

6

Finland

655

0.43%

1,166

0.49%

19

Saudi Arabia

?22?

?0.006?

1,734

0.45%

7

France

8,475

0.49%

10,908

0.41%

20

Spain

2,547

0.27%

6,867

0.47%

8

Germany

7,836

0.33%

13,981

0.43%

21

Sweden

2,704

1.1%

4,732

1.8%

9

Greece

464

0.21%

703

0.21%

22

Switzerland

1,379

0.55%

2,038

0.42%

10

Ireland

586

0.5%

1,328

0.58%

23

United Arab Emirates

?5.2?

?0.007?

181

0.08%

11

Italy

2,484

0.15%

4,861

0.23%

24

United Kingdom

7,497

0.42%

11,500

0.52%

12

Japan

8,859

0.22%

9,579

0.19%

25

United States

19,000

0.19%

26,842

0.19%

13

Kuwait

?175?

?0.33%?

209

0.18%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source: World Economics HA-2010, HA-2007

 

Clause A.C., “more generous ODA for countries committed to poverty reduction” has proven the most efficient 
measurement of international economic cooperation.  Not all nations, especially least developed nations, have the 
resources or infrastructure to trade effectively.  ODA fell out of use during the neo-liberal 1990s, growing only 
10.5%, from $52.7 billion to $58.3 billion, over the 12 years till 2002, 0.8% annually.  Then, awakened to 
international responsibility by the global conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq, ODA grew rapidly, with the objective 
of achieving the MDGs, to $69.1 billion in 2003, 18.5% growth, to $79.4 billion in 2004, 14.9% growth, to 
$107.1 billion in 2005, phenomenal 35% growth.  Energy prices and insecurity in the bank however cut into 
donor confidence in 2006 and receipts by developing nations declined to $104.4 billion, -2.5% growth, dropping 
again in 2007 to $103.5 billion, -0.9% growth.  United by the economic crisis and obligated to fulfill the 2015 
goal of contributing 0.7% of GDP to ODA as collateral for IMF loans ODA picked up to $119.8 billion, 15.7% 
growth.  The G-8 is calling for $154 billion ODA in 2010, 17.1% annual growth, and this growth in ODA 
seems to be sustainable.  Insulated against negative GDP growth by the unfulfilled obligation to contribute 0.7% 
of GDP aid levels are expected to continue to grow even in a downturn.  The biggest controversy among 
donors is that the contributions of Islamic oil and South Korea to ODA are unaccounted for the by OECD.  
According to reports the successful Islamic oil exporting nations contribute 4% of their GDP although the 
available statistics belie this theory and their contributions are within 0.09% and 0.54% of GDP.  Islamic oil 
is a generous benefactor who has graduated nearly as many African and Asian nations as OECD has in 
Eastern Europe.  
 
Table 16: Class of 2006-2009
#
Status
Per Capita
2009
Per Capita 2006
#
Status
Per Capita 2009
Per Capita
2006
 
Status
Per Capita
2009
Per Capita 2006
 
>$900
 
 

 

>$10,000

 

 

 

>$20,000

 

 

1

Comoros

$1,000

$600

16

Gabon

$13,900

$5,800

32

Bahamas

$29,800

$17,700

2

Congo, Republic of

$4,100

$800

17

Grenada

$10,800

$5,000

33

Czech Republic

$25,100

$16,800

3

Ethiopia

$900

$800

18

Kazakhstan

$11,800

$8,700

34

Dominica

$10,200

$5,500

4

Kiribati

$6,100

$800

19

Lebanon

$13,100

$5,100

35

Korea, South

$28,000

$19,200

5

Malawi

$900

$600

20

Libya

$15,200

$8,400

36

Oman

$23,900

$13,400

6

Sierra Leone

$900

$800

21

Malaysia

$14,800

$9,700

37

Panama

$11,900

$6,900

7

Tanzania

$1,400

$700

22

Mexico

$13,500

$9,600

38

Portugal

$21,800

$17,900

8

Timor-Leste

$2,400

$400

23

Romania

$11,500

$7,700

39

Saudi Arabia

$20,400

$12,900

9

Yemen

$2,500

$800

24

Russia

$15,100

$9,800

40

Trinidad & Tobago

$23,100

$10,500

 
>$10,000
 
 

25

Saint Kitts & Nevis

$15,200

$8,800

 
<$900
 
 

10

Anguilla

$12,200

$7,500

26

Saint Lucia

$10,900

$5,400

41

Central-African Republic

$700

$1,200

11

Azerbaijan

$10,400

$4,600

27

Saint Vincent

$18,100

$2,900

42

Eritrea

$700

$1,000

12

Belarus

$11,600

$6,800

28

Serbia

$10,400

$2,400

43

Niger

$700

$900

13

Brazil

$10,200

$8,100

29

Seychelles

$19,400

$7,800

 
<$20,000
 
 

14

Bulgaria

$12,600

$8,200

30

Turkey

$11,200

$7,900

44

Guam

$15,000

$21,000

15

Costa Rica

$10,900

$9,600

31

Venezuela

$13,100

$5,800

 

 

 

 

Source: World Economics HA-2010, HA-2007
 
A class of 40 nations graduated from their pre-existing development status between 2006 and 2009 and five were held back.  
Per capita income is not the only form of evaluating human development, the Human Development Report uses a composite 
human development index to gauge development.  Generally, graduation from LDC status takes a per capita income of $900, 
graduating from developing to middle income $10,000 and from middle income to high income $20,000.  Despite the crisis 
and backsliding more nations graduated than were held back.  9 nations graduated from least developed to developing, 
Comoros, the Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Kiribati, Malawi, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, Timor-Leste and Yemen.  25 nations 
graduated from developing to middle income, Anguilla, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Brazil, Bulgaria, Costa Rica, Dominica, 
Gabon, Grenada, Kazakhstan, Lebanon, Libya, Malaysia, Mexico, Panama, Romania, Russia, Saint Kitts and Nevis, 
Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent, Serbia, Seychelles, Turkey and Venezuela to middle income.  7 nations graduated to high 
income, Bahamas, Czech Republic, Oman, Portugal, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Trinidad & Tobago.  Four nations 
were held back as LDC, the Central African Republic, Eritrea, Niger and Zimbabwe.  Guam was held back in middle 
income.  While global economic growth may have slowed per capita income had a mind of its own.  Industrialized nation 
per capita, including Arabian oil producers, increased dramatically, although many industrialized nation GDPs went 
down the workers seemed to earn more at the expense of the GDP. Offshore banking nations did spectacular.  Middle 
income and developing nations struggled, more often than not victoriously, to grow, but there were quite a few falls in 
per capita income.  Most new graduates to middle income did not eschew assistance during the crisis.  The OECD 
needs to welcome the Arabian oil producing states, South Korea and wealthy island states into their donor portfolio.   
 
Table 17: 10 Least Developed Countries 2009, by per capita under $1,000

Country

Population

Per capita

GDP

PPP

GDP

PPP

GDP ex. rate

ODA million

2008

ODA

per

capita

Below Poverty Line

Deficit % GDP

Ex. rate

Inflation

Trade Balance

% GDP

External Debt  billions

Zimbabwe

11,392,629

$100

0.332

N/A

-611

$53.60

68%

-38%

5.1%

-285%

5.17

Burundi

9,511,330

$300

3.247

1.427

-509

$53.60

68%

-3%

14.1%

-16.7%

1.2

Congo,Democratic Republic of the

68,692,542

$300

21.33

11.23

-1,620

$23.60

 

-11.6%

16.7%

8%

10

Liberia

3,441,790

$500

1.627

0.878

-1,250

$367.60

80%

-0.6%

11.2%

-677%

3.2

Guinea-Bissau

1,533,964

$600

0.933

0.443

-132

$88.00

 

 

3.8%

15.1%

0.942

Somalia

9,832,017

$600

5.731

2.763

-758

$77.35

 

 

 N/A

-18%

3

Central-African Republic

4,511,488

$700

3.32

2.006

-256

$56.89

 

-1.4%

0.9%

-4.5%

1.153

Eritrea

5,647,168

$700

4.198

1.714

-143

$25.54

50%

-20%

15.5%

-33.7%

0.311

Niger

15,306,252

$700

10.45

5.386

-605

$39.54

63%

0%

0.1%

-6.9%

2.1

Afghanistan

28,395,716

$800

23.35

13.47

- 4,865

$171.30

36%

-17%

30.5%

-35.3%

0

Source: World Economics HA-2010
 
The UN defines Least Developed Countries as low income countries with a three-year average per capita gross national 
income (GNI) of under USD 750, those above $900 qualify for graduation.  The geo-political ramifications of the crisis 
is primarily that the Afghan conquerors of the Soviet Union have proved themselves morally superior to the European 
Union and the United States, but needs to tax the opium and foreign occupying powers to prosper themselves.  Arabian 
economic growth rates and their oil exploiting protégé have enjoyed dramatic growth despite oil price slump.  Some 
middle income nations graduated from developing status between 2006 and 2009, particularly in Central and Southeastern 
Europe, but many still receive subsidies during the credit crisis.  For instance, Serbian per capita, liberated from newly 
independent Montenegro, rose from poorest, in all of Europe, around $2,400 in 2006 to $10,400.  Negative economic 
growth and budget deficits in United States and Europe spread to dependant nations.  Many per capita incomes were 
devaluated in light of the recession, although many of their economic growth rates remained positive.  According to 
the Factbook there are sixteen nations with per capita incomes below $1,000 and 10 below the $900 threshold.  
Zimbabwe had the lowest per capita ever reported in the Factbook, $100, although growth was estimated at 3.7%, 
95% of workers are unemployed, 60% live below the poverty line, the deficit is 38% of GDP, public 304% of GDP, 
trade deficit 285% and the nation received only $53.60 per capita in aid.  A second round of assistance should be 
administrated to the LDCs on a basis of ODA per capita.
 

Table 18: Millennium Development Goals and Beyond 2000-2020

 

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Population

6.0 billion

6.6 billion

6.8 billion

7.0 billion

7.2 billion

GDP

$50 trillion

$60 trillion

$70 trillion

$85 trillion

$100 trillion

Per capita

$8,000

$9,000

$10,000

$12,000

$15,000

ODA needed

$50 billion

$100 billion

$200 billion

$400 billion

$800 billion

ODA actual

$50 billion

$100 billion

$150 billion