In the United National General Assembly

 

Second Recount of UN Statistical Assessment; Base Year 2018 HA-25-1-24, HA-30-1-24, HA-16-2-24, HA-7-3-24

 

By Anthony J. Sanders

Hospitals & Asylums

 

Wash your nose; echinacea cures COVID, RSV and flu (Luke 3:16)

 

A total of 197 independent nations are counted in the Atlas.  Votes of no confidence in the UN General Assembly: (1) UN Data and World Bank estimates pertaining to Country by Country GNI and GDP must be deleted to base year 2018 and recalculated using IMF moderated economic growth rates published in World Economic Outlook: Navigating Global Divergences of October 2023 by IMF country visits.  (2) Both the Mid-year population on table beginning on page 114 of the 2022 Demographic Yearbook and UN Data population statistics must be cleaned up, so that Final Figure, incomplete/questionable reliability are all overruled by - Final Figure, complete – and consistent with the second recount of total population data in Annex I: Mid-year population, United Nations estimates: 2013 – 2022 on pages 692-696 of the 2022 Demographic Yearbook. (3) Overestimation of revenues 2020-2021 in the Budgetary and financial situation of the organizations of the United Nations system A/77/507 5 October 2022 (2016-2021) must be replaced with historical CEB statistics that have been destroyed by the United Nations, as the baseline for the UN Assembly to estimate UN revenue growth that is proportionate with global GNI growth.  (4)  2020 US Presidential election fraud justifies removing both geezers from the ballot and fingerprinting voters in the 2024 election. (5) The Secretary General is charged with $22 billion in arrears to UN Peacekeeping, paid $10 billion UN Security Council authorized US humanitarian assistance and $12 billion, over time, for 100,000 UN Peacekeepers and/or a new Peacekeeping Fund to sustain 3 percent inflation for UN Peacekeeping services that can be liquidated to pay for humanitarian assistance or UN Compensation to victims of armed conflict.  (6) Charge Israel ($50 billion), Mali ($5 million), Myanmar ($30 billion), Pakistan ($1.7 billion), Palestine ($50 million), Russia ($100 billion), Saudi Arabia ($24.8 billion), Syria ($60 billion), and the United States of America ($150 billion) with arrears due to owing UN Compensation in excess of two years of dues and need to criticize their vote under Art. 19 of the UN Charter.  (7) Israel vote of equal confidence with Palestine in regards to Membership under Art. 5 of the UN Charter and ad hoc judges under Art. 1(2) of the Rules and Art. 31 of the Statute of the Court.  (8) UN Compensation casualty insurance benefit estimates for current wars in Burkina Faso ($10.6 billion), Columbia ($353 million), Democratic Republic of Congo ($30-$60 billion), Ethiopia ($20 billion), Haiti ($1.1 billion), Mexico ($450 million), Sudan ($29.3 billion), Somalia ($18.5 billion), South Sudan ($12 billion), and Cameroon ($5.1 billion).

 

As of the New Year 2024 the Budgetary and financial situation of the organizations of the United Nations system A/77/507 5 October 2022 (2016-2021), that I had to sue for deceptively retroactive publication last year and a quarter, has not been updated for 2022, or even especially for June 2023 when the 42-month limit on $60-$70 billion blasphemy of the UN System should have ended (Rev. 13:5).  For the sake of UN Peacekeeping, who has been cursed with +/-$6.6 billion assessment since declining from $7.3 billion in 2018, it is time for the Assembly to update the annual Budgetary and financial situation of the organizations of the United Nations system (2016-2024).  Article 17 of the Charter of the United Nations provides that Member States have the obligation to bear the expenses of the Organization, as apportioned by the General Assembly.  The fundamental principle underlying the apportionment by the Assembly is based broadly on the capacity of Member States to pay, in accordance with rule 160 of its rules of procedure.  The General Assembly in resolution 76/238 (establishing the 2022-2024 scale) reaffirmed that the Committee on Contributions (CoC) as a technical body is required to prepare the scale of assessments strictly on the basis of reliable, verifiable and comparable data CoC (A/77/11, para. 20).  All agency assessments utilize similar methods of assessments.  Data are provided, in national currency, in response to the United Nations annual national accounts questionnaire.  National accounts data is then disseminated into US dollars in two separate databases: National Accounts Statistics, Main Aggregates and Detailed Tables (MADT) database and Analysis of Main Aggregates (AMA) database. 

 

All UN agency assessments adhere to a similar principal and pricing strategy based on GNI, so that the whole request of the UN system is about 1 percent of global taxable corporate income, or as the Committee on Contributions puts it, the Floor is the minimum assessment rate for Least Developed Countries (LDCs), that has changed from 0.01 to 0.001 per cent of the total agency assessment since the 1998-2000 scale and maximum ceiling of 22 percent for developed countries, ie. The US.  As a rule, States rebel against assessment inflation in excess of 3 percent pursuant to the Iron Law Wages, unless there are sufficiently popular grounds for calling in evasion of taxing all income one percent to pay an international poverty line benefit, ie. UN Peacekeeping assessment (Rev 13:5) and inclusion of reparations for state based armed conflicts in arrears.  The Assembly must first produce credible estimates of GNI to facilitate UN agencies to produce credible assessments of contributions, for the settlement of the permanent record of receipts for 2022 and 2023 and is also challenged to produce a conservative estimate for 2024, so that the UN system is fiscally self-determinate and no longer needs to be held in trust by Hospitals & Asylums (HA).  There is a two-year delay before the economic statistics in the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs World Statistics Pocketbook are updated, ie. Footnotes in the 2023 Pocketbook tabulates GDP data from 2021, and not the requisite GNI data, maintained by UN Data also until 2021, at the beginning of calendar year 2024. The GDP and GNI overestimates have been used to overestimate dues.  Overestimates of dues resulted in non-payment of said overestimates and consequently the retraction of preliminary overestimates.  The UN is however back to square one.  The size of the COVID-19 economic collapse and recovery suffers from overestimation.

 

The Assembly must produce credible GNI estimates using UN data from 2018 as a base year, multiplied by national IMF economic growth rates percentages, for 2019-2024.  Globally, the COVID-19 pandemic reduced world economic growth to 2.8 percent in 2019, -2.8 percent in 2020, with catch-up growth of 6.3 percent in 2021.  The baseline forecast for post-COVID growth to slow from 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3.0 percent in 2023 and 2.9 percent in 2024, well below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 percent (whereas the UN has not yet given the belated order to wash your nose - echinacea cures COVID, RSV and flu, nor has the conduct of the UN indicated survivors have recovered from the brain-shrinking effect of using pseudoephedrine to cure COVID, whereas the COVID vaccine is nearly as placebo as the flu, neither of which are due any more subsidy than Portuguese hard drugs).  The October 2023 World Economic Outlook provides the country-by-country economic growth statistics that are needed to update the UN Data GNI estimates from 2022.  Reciprocity requires the author to tabulate the 2019-2024 GNI estimates for Assembly to produce 2022-2024 update of Budgetary and financial situation of the organizations of the United Nations system (2016-2024), however, before getting through the A’s, and after adding 2018-2020 columns, in four hours, it is estimated to take at least another week of work.  In the preliminary table, agreed upon 2021 GNI data was at first considered true and 2022 data overestimates usually overruled by IMF economic growth rates, but there is also sporadic tendency to overestimate the severity of the COVID contraction in UN Data, due its preliminary effect, in UN Data, wherefore the inquisition into GNI and GDP data must begin in 2018, before the COVID-19 pandemic.    

 

Gross National Income; By Country 2018-2024

(Millions of US Dollars)

 

Source: GNI by Country in US Dollars, UN Data 2018; Economic growth, World Economic Outlook: Navigating Global Divergences, IMF October 2023

 

^a Data for Cuba, Liechtenstein, Monaco, North Korea, Syria and Taiwan economic growth had to be searched online by year in the second pass. The North Korean economy may be much larger than the UN gives them credit for with estimates of $28 billion in 2016 with $100 billion in purchasing power parity, taking into consideration the mountain of free housing, minerals of military utility and scarcity of food.  Cuban growth rates for 2019 and 2020 were the most challenging calculations of the year. ^b Afghan economy has declined since 2019 and is estimated to continue to decline -3.0 percent annually for 2023 and 2024. ^c China (mainland), Hong Kong and Macao are combined to make 197 independent nations, rather than 209 initially reported in the second recount. ^d Egypt's real GDP growth projection for 2023 is 4.2 percent and 3.6 percent in 2024, 5.6 percent growth is estimated for 2019. ^e Eritria growth rate of 3.8 percent in 2019 is last reported estimate, 3 percent projected 2020-2024. ^f Guyana economic growth is obviously overestimated, but it is corroborated, following record real GDP growth in 2022—62.3 percent, the highest in the world—real GDP is expected to continue to grow extremely fast in 2023 (38 percent). ^g Lebanese economic growth recovered to 0.2 percent in 2023 and 1.4 percent in 2024. ^h Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics estimates a -6.2 percent decline in 2023, -33 percent in third quarter, -80 percent in Gaza, and -5 percent in 2024.  ⁱ Singapore not reported in World Economic Outlook, but by IMF website, growth is estimated to continue at one percent in 2024. ^j Sri Lanka economic growth is estimated at -3.8 percent in 2023 and 1.7 percent in 2024 by the World Bank. ^k The GDP of the both Republics of Tanzania: Mainland and Zanzibar have been combined. ^l Zambia GDP is reduced by IMF consultations. ^m Zimbabwe IMF staff visit October 2023, reduces growth estimates to 4.5 percent in 2022, 4.8 percent in 2023 and 3.5 percent in 2024. 

 

World income, by national total GNI, is estimated to have been $86.8 trillion in 2018, growing 2.5 percent to $89.0 trillion in 2019, contracting -2.6 percent to $86.7 trillion in 2020, catch-up growth of 5.9 percent to $981.8 trillion in 2021, before slowing down to 3.3 percent to $94.8 trillion in 2022, 2.6 percent to $97.2 trillion in 2023 and $99.6 trillion in 2024.  The IMF total world real GDP growth estimate of 2.8 percent growth 2018-2019 is downgraded to 2.5 percent by this summary of GNI, however it is important to note that the debate regarding GDP has not yet begun.  Catch-up growth was quickly exhausted, and economic growth is slowing down, but remains bullish.  It will be necessary for the author to use the same IMF growth rate table again to produce a global GDP total using 2018 as a base year, before having an atlas update worth publishing.  I must first, however make amends for not comprehending the footnote in the World Statistical Pocketbook that GDP estimates for 2018, were from 2016, and the GWP was accordingly underestimated by two years, before publication of this work, that is, in its preliminary form, primarily obligated to facilitate the update of the UN System budget, as a layperson, who may have to research the scales of assessment by country for every agency, if the Assembly is unable to perform, after having their GNI homework done for them.  As a rule, UN Statistics and especially budgets need to be more forward-thinking, into the next year, with reasonable assumptions regarding future growth, that are competently reviewed.  Admittedly, there is about a 0.3 percent margin of error between IMF world GNI estimate and the world GNI totals in this work.  In other words, IMF world economic growth estimate(s) are about 12 percent higher than the sum of this work plugging in IMF real GDP growth estimates country by country, since 2018.  There may be as much as a one percent margin of error real from using GDP growth estimates produced by the IMF to adjust GNI, a slightly different statistic, but this is better than an additional five percent margin of overestimation, uncorrelated with the acceptable IMF growth rate estimates.

 

The current UN Statistical system involves the IMF making economic growth predictions that are applied to the (lost) balances of the World Bank to become UN Data.  The headquarters of both of these Bretton Woods Institutions are however, unfortunately, located in Washington DC where the Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analyses (BEA) has been overestimating GDP for two geriatric administrations, IMF economic growth checks have been without legal consequence since 2021 and the divergence between the economic growth rate and numerical growth in GDP value widens, with the obese Jewish Treasury Secretary’s waistline.  This recount updating UN Data on GNI from 2018 with IMF economic growth rates is slightly lower than prior estimates of GDP, but without a GDP table it is too soon to tell what figure is exact.  The non-academic thing about GDP statistics is the Treasury must not sell more than 3 percent of GDP deficit or will incur a depression in the stock exchange.  Deficits in excess of 3 percent of GDP are therefore, to be bought by and pay interest to the US General Fund balance, held thereby into perpetuity by the 3 percent limit on deficits, rather than squandered on any deficit, real or imaginary, pursuant to Sec. 10,000 of the Echinacea Recount Agenda of 2024.  Population statistics seem alright, India is the most popular country in 2024, with a lovely economic recount and two Indian descendants running for President of the United States.  However, the Commerce Department Census Bureau interfered with the 2020 federal election, must stop infringing racial statistics with confusion regarding Latino race being an “ethnicity”, count people detained in US jails and prisons, possibly stop conducting a Decennial Census whereas it is expensive, invasive, has an election fraud prior and is statistically less skilled than archival population counting methods, and for their international omission since the wrongful termination of the Annual Statistical Abstract in 2011, needs to study international trade, country by country to begin to check customs revenue overestimates in denial of the price elasticity of the Law of Supply and Demand and 3 percent annual Swiss Formula for Unilateral Tariff Reduction (2007). 

 

The Assembly President is advised to redress the loss of statistical balance by UN Data with a vote of no confidence by the UN Assembly in GDP and GNI data, and probably other economic data, since 2018, pre-COVID.  Acceptance of this preliminary recount of GNI, or first recount of a self-determinate UN Assembly, that does not excessively diverge from this work, serves as the basis for re-assessing the scale of assessment for all UN agencies.  The UN Assembly would furthermore lead UN System of National Accounts (SNA) staticians, to totally recount UN economic statistics since 2018, for the approval of the UN Assembly.  Now that the GNI data is preliminarily updated, the Assembly should be able to pass the scale of assessments, that is beyond the capacity of the layman to understand, when once fixed by the General Assembly, the scale of assessment shall not be subject to a general revision for at least three years.  The grudgingly passed 2021 UN System Budget based on the current scale of assessment is absolutely not passing, since 2022, and it is 2024, whereas it is clear that the substantial changes in relative capacity to pay, are illusory, due to overestimation of GNI by UN Data, without regard to arbitrary IMF economic growth estimates under Rule 160 of the Rule of Procedure of the UN General Assembly.  The Advisory Committee on Administrative and Budgetary Questions and Contribution Committee are summoned to examine on behalf of the General Assembly the administrative budgets of specialized agencies and proposals for financial and budgetary arrangements with such agencies under Rule 157 of the Rule of Procedure of the General Assembly.  The transcription and calculus in this GNI table 2018-2024 are done right, with a recently strengthened heart and a three-day rain storm. Egypt and Zimbabwe IMF economic growth estimates in World Economic Outlook, have been overruled by more recent IMF decisions, and other blanks have been filled in at reasonable rates.  For the most part this work needs to be taken as a preliminary review of GNI from 2018 to facilitate the development of an acceptable scale of assessment and produce a 2022-2024 UN system budget.  The UN Assembly should have no difficulty passing a “vote of no confidence in UN Economic Data since 2018 before COVID, citing divergence of the GNI value from the usually credible IMF real GDP growth rate since 2018, pre-COVID-19”.  The Assembly may vote to consent to be bound by the GNI table above by a majority, but any State Party may express a reservation whereby it purports to exclude or to modify a statistic they know better, but might also be cheating, and must justify their reservation pursuant to Art. 2(d) of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (1980).

 

Gross Domestic Product; By Country 2018-2024

(Millions of US Dollars)