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The Health of the Economy HA-5-10-06

1. The US economy has reached a new phase.  Economists are now wrestling to determine the health of the economy in light of the recent slump in economic growth.  These have been challenging times for economic forecasters and policymakers. Since the summer of 2005, the economy has absorbed a wide variety of shocks--major hurricanes, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and substantial increases in energy prices--and has adapted to a rise in short-term interest rates to more normal levels. Yet real gross domestic product (GDP) increased a respectable 3-1/2 percent from the second quarter of 2005 to the second quarter of 2006, and the unemployment rate fell to 4-3/4 percent. At the same time, however, headline consumer price inflation has been quite high, and an upward movement in core inflation has raised concerns about the persistence in price pressures, a very worrisome development from the point of view of a monetary policy maker.  The economy is expected to grow at a moderate pace for a while, somewhat below the rate of increase of its potential, and then growth will begin to strengthen. In addition, as the cost pressures from the run-up in energy and materials prices begin to play out, or perhaps even partly reverse, and as pressures on resources ease slightly resulting in much lower headline inflation and a gradual diminution of core consumer price inflation.  Based on the data we now have, the growth of real GDP in the third quarter appears to have remained as subdued as it was in the second quarter and may well have slowed further. As we enter the fourth quarter, little in the way of hard economic data or anecdotal information suggests any sharp shift in the pace of economic activity.  If that is so, the economy  could be in the process of registering several consecutive quarters of growth below its potential rate, the first time it has done so since early 2003.  After three years of growth above potential, some slowing was inevitable and desirable.

Graph of Real GDP Growth

2. There is a hotly contested debate between the bulls and the bears.  Those who are convinced that the economy is humming along smoothly include stock market investors who have pushed major equities near their all time high and the Federal Reserve which remains poised to increase interest rates to cool inflation.  On the other side however are bond investors.  The bond market has been rallying in recent weeks, which it typically does when it expects the economy to cool off. In fact fixed income investors are predicting rate cuts for the Fed to avoid recession.  David Rosenberg the chief North American economist of Merrill Lynch said, “It is highly doubtful that both asset classes can be getting the story right.  We have a sneaking suspicion that the bondies may be getting it right.” On October 2nd the Institute for Supply Management reported weaker than expected manufacturing activity last month.  The ISM manufacturing index dropped to 52.9% in September from 54.5% in August.  That pushed up two year, five year and ten year notes.  Investors can now earn higher yields on six month bills than on two year notes, indicating expectations for interest rates to fall. Rober DiClemente head of US economic and market analysis at Citigroup Global Markets says, “The US is sitting comfortably.  The expansion is moderating.  This is a good thing, it removes inflationary pressures allowing the Fed to stop raising interest rates and keeping growth intact.  These indicators lend one to believe that the private sector is doing well but the government sector is facing serious lapses in confidence regarding the long term health of their investment as the result of their failure to balance the budget. 

3. Between the beginning of 2001 and the end of 2005, the constant-quality price index for new homes rose 30 percent and the purchase-only price index of existing homes published by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) increased 50 percent. These increases boosted the net worth of the household sector, which further fueled the growth of consumer spending directly through the traditional "wealth effect" and possibly through the increased availability of relatively inexpensive credit secured by the capital gains on homes. By the end of last year, however, the high price of houses and rising interest rates had begun to take a meaningful toll on demand for homes. That said, the fourth quarter of last year seems to provide a reasonable reference point: Since that time, housing starts have fallen about 20 percent, and home sales are down 10 percent. Home-price appreciation has also slowed dramatically since late last year, and some local markets have experienced outright price declines. Homebuilders report that cancellations have increased sharply, especially for second homes. Realtors note that existing houses are staying on the market longer, and sellers must increasingly make concessions to buyers.  In the past, outright declines in the nominal prices of houses have been relatively rare and localized. 

4. The trend over the 1990s to the 2001 recession was a decrease in unemployment and an increase in employment. In 1999 and 2000, annual growth in employment was 2.8 million people, with approximately 155,000 more people employed each month. Over 15 million people were added to the jobs over the decade.  At its low in December 2000, the unemployment rate equaled 3.9 percent. In 2001, unemployment rates began to increase. Unemployment rates continued to increase after the 2001 recession, as the economy only slowly recovered.  From March 2001 to the summer 2003, the trend was generally one of increasing unemployment rates and decreasing employment.  However, unemployment rates have been steadily decreasing since reaching a high of 6.3 percent in June of 2003.  On October 5 the number of newly laid off workers filing claims for unemployment benefits was reported to have dropped last week to the lowest level in 10 weeks. The Labor Department reported Thursday that 302,000 persons filed claims last week, the smallest number to show up at unemployment offices since the week ending July 22. The level was down by 17,000 from the previous week and marked the second consecutive week that claims applications have fallen, providing evidence that the slowdown the economy has been going through since the spring has not triggered a big increase in layoffs.

Seasonal Adjusted Unemployment Rate
Bureau of Labor Statistics

Year

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Annual

1996

5.6

5.5

5.5

5.6

5.6

5.3

5.5

5.1

5.2

5.2

5.4

5.4

 

1997

5.3

5.2

5.2

5.1

4.9

5.0

4.9

4.8

4.9

4.7

4.6

4.7

 

1998

4.6

4.6

4.7

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.6

4.5

4.4

4.4

 

1999

4.3

4.4

4.2

4.3

4.2

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.0

 

2000

4.0

4.1

4.0

3.8

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.1

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.9

 

2001

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.4

4.3

4.5

4.6

4.9

5.0

5.3

5.5

5.7

 

2002

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.9

5.8

5.8

5.8

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.9

6.0

 

2003

5.8

5.9

5.9

6.0

6.1

6.3

6.2

6.1

6.1

6.0

5.9

5.7

 

2004

5.7

5.6

5.7

5.5

5.6

5.6

5.5

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

 

2005

5.2

5.4

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.0

5.0

4.9

5.1

4.9

5.0

4.9

 

2006

4.7

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.6

4.6

4.8

4.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

5. Over the next few decades, the U.S. population will grow significantly older, a development that will affect our society and our economy in many ways.  In particular, the coming demographic transition will create severe fiscal challenges, as the cost of entitlement programs rises sharply.  From a broader economic perspective, the question is how the burden of an aging population is to be shared between our generation and the generations that will follow us.  A failure on our part to prepare for demographic change will have substantial adverse effects on the economic welfare of our children and grandchildren and on the long-run productive potential of the U.S. economy.  In coming decades, many forces will shape our economy and our society, but in all likelihood no single factor will have as pervasive an effect as the aging of our population.  In 2008, as the first members of the baby-boom generation reach the minimum age for receiving Social Security benefits, there will be about five working-age people (between the ages of twenty and sixty-four) in the United States for each person aged sixty-five and older, and those sixty-five and older will make up about 12 percent of the U.S. population.  Those statistics are set to change rapidly, at least relative to the speed with which one thinks of demographic changes as usually taking place.  For example, according to the intermediate projections of the Social Security Trustees, by 2030--by which time most of the baby boomers will have retired--the ratio of those of working age to those sixty-five and older will have fallen from five to about three.  By that time, older Americans will constitute about 19 percent of the U.S. population, a greater share than of the population of Florida today.  Longer, healthier lives will provide many benefits for individuals, families, and society as a whole. 

6. As the population ages, the nation will have to choose among higher taxes, less non-entitlement spending, a reduction in outlays for entitlement programs, a sharply higher budget deficit, or some combination thereof.  To get a sense of the magnitudes involved, suppose that we tried to finance projected entitlement spending entirely by revenue increases.  In that case, the taxes collected by the federal government would have to rise from about 18 percent of GDP today to about 24 percent of GDP in 2030, an increase of one-third in the tax burden over the next twenty-five years, with more increases to follow. Alternatively, financing the projected increase in entitlement spending entirely by reducing outlays in other areas would require that spending for programs other than Medicare and Social Security be cut by about half, relative to GDP, from its current value of 12 percent of GDP today to about 6 percent of GDP by 2030.  In today’s terms, this action would be equivalent to a budget cut of approximately $700 billion in non-entitlement spending.  The most straightforward way to raise national saving--although not a politically easy one--is to reduce the government’s current and projected budget deficits.  The intergenerational perspective provides a few insights that might be helpful to policymakers as they undertake the needed reforms.  First, restructuring the finances of our entitlement programs to minimize their reliance on deficit spending will enhance national saving and reduce the burden on future generations.  Second, changes in the structure of entitlement programs should preserve or enhance the incentives to work and to save; for example, we should take care that benefits rules do not penalize those who may wish to work part-time after retirement.   Finally, the imperative to undertake reform earlier rather than later is great. 

US Budget Estimated in billions by OMB 2000 – 2010 and Proposed by HA 2006-2010

Table 3

Int’l

Def

OASI

Rev

Exp

Def

Acct. Def.

Debt

GDP

GNI

2000

12

294.50

411.68

2,025

1,788

87

 

5,628

9,719

6,400

2001

14

305.50

434.06

1,991

1,860

-33

 

5,770

10,022

6,666

2002

15

349.56

440.54

1,853

2,011

-317

 

6,198

10,339

7,000

2003

35

388.87

447.81

1,782

2,157

-375

-922

6,780

10,828

6,666

2004

15

437.12

457.12

1,880

2,292

-412

-1,077

7,355

11,552

7,500

2005

17

444.07

479.89

2,052

2,479

-400

-1,183

8,058

12,227

7,921

2006

25

510.09

507.09

2,285

2,696

-411

-1,240

8,448

12,294

8,078  

2007

30

471

537.85

2,416

2,798

-312

 

8,760

13,617

8,500

2008

35

436.44

568.09

2,507

2,757

-251

 

9,010

14,349

9,000

2009

40

460.55

599.95

2,650

2,882

-233

 

9,343

15,111

9,500

2010

50

485.11

635.31

2,821

3,028

-207

 

9,530

15,906

10,000

Pro.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2006

33

400

400

2,193

2,400

-178

-978

8,218

12,294

8,078

2007

50

365

400

2,416

2,426

24

-826

8,300

13,617

8,500

2008

65

333

425

2,507

2,473

33

-867

8,267

14,349

9,000

2009

75

333

450

2,650

2,565

50

-800

8,183

15,111

9,500

2010

90

300

500

2,821

2,708

100

-750

8,070

15,906

10,000

7. The health care sector is important to the nation's labor market however the increase in health insurance premiums is like a cancerously disproportionate growth that requires redress. From 1995-2000, the economy generated 14.5 million jobs according to the CES survey from the BLS.  The broadest measure of healthcare employment (healthcare and social assistance) generated 1.44 million jobs, or approximately 9.9% of the total jobs generated over the period.  From July of 2003 through July of 2006, nearly 5.6 million jobs were created in the United States.  There has been a 44% increase in licensed real estate agents in the past 5 years to 2.5 million licensed agents. That's almost 764,000 new agents in the past 5 years alone.  In the three months ending July 2006, the healthcare sector accounted for 32% of new private jobs, by far the biggest single contributor.  Since 2001, 1.7 million new jobs have been added in the health-care sector, which includes related industries such as pharmaceuticals and health insurance.  There are rumors in Business Week that the number of private-sector jobs outside of health care is no higher than it was five years ago but this is false.  The health care industry is merely a vibrant sector of the economy.  Health care is however not without problems and health insurance is clearly a major source of corruption in the economy and the legislature will have to work to regulate inflation in health insurance premiums to be fair to workers who pay the price of a visit to the doctor every month and are not covered if they stop paying their premiums.  The options for reform are to regulate the price of private health insurance providers or to shift to single payer government insurance.

8. Health Insurance Premium growth moderated in 2006, but it still increases twice as fast as wages.  Although growth in health insurance premiums has moderated in each of the last three years, it continues to outpace inflation and average wage growth. Since the year 2000, health insurance premiums have grown by 87%, compared with cumulative inflation of 18% and cumulative wage growth of 20%. During this period, the percentage of employers offering health benefits has fallen from 69% to 61%, and the percentage of workers covered by their own employer also has fallen.  Premiums for employer-sponsored health coverage rose an average 7.7 percent in 2006, less than the 9.2 percent increase recorded in 2005 and the recent peak of 13.9 percent in 2003, according to the 2006 Employer Health Benefits Survey released this week by the Kaiser Family Foundation and Health Research and Educational Trust. Premiums still increased twice as fast as workers' wages and overall inflation last year. Since 2000, premiums have grown 87 percent while wages have gone up 20 percent and inflation has gone up 18 percent. The annual survey, which Kaiser and HRET have been conducting since 1999, also found modest enrollment in consumer-driven health plans.  Employer sponsored health insurance provides coverage for 155 million non elderly in America.  Average annual premiums for employer-sponsored coverage are $4,242 for single coverage and $11,480 for family coverage

 

9. Over 75% of covered workers with single coverage and over 90% of covered workers with family coverage make a contribution toward the total premium for their coverage.  Workers on average contribute $627 annually toward the cost of single coverage and $2,973 annually toward the cost of family coverage.  Since 2000, annual worker contributions have increased by $293 for single coverage and by $1,354 for family coverage.   In addition to their premium contributions, most covered workers make additional payments when they use health care.  For workers in plans with a general plan deductible, the average annual deductibles for single coverage are $352 for workers enrolled in HMOs, $473 for workers enrolled in PPOs, $553 for workers enrolled in POS plans, and $1,715 for workers enrolled in HDHP/SOs.  The vast majority of covered workers face copayments when they go to the doctor. Among these covered workers, 60% are in plans with a copayment of $15 or $20, and an additional 15% are in a plan with a copayment of $25.   Among workers who face cost sharing for prescription drugs, most face copayments rather than coinsurance; the average copayments are $11 for generic drugs, $24 for preferred drugs, and $38 for nonpreferred drugs.   Twenty-seven percent of employers offering health benefits offer one or more wellness programs to their employees, with 19% offering an injury prevention program, 10% offering a fitness program, 9% offering a smoking cessation program, and 6% offering a weight loss program. Large firms (200 or more workers) are more likely than small firms (3–199 workers) to offer one or more wellness programs (62% vs. 26%).

10. Since 2000, the percentage of firms offering health benefits has fallen from 69%. As we have seen in prior years, health benefit offer rates vary considerably by firm size, with only 48% of the smallest companies (3–9 workers) offering health benefits, compared to 73% of firms with 10 to 24 workers, 87% of firms with 25 to 49 workers, and over 90% of firms with 50 or more workers.  Even when a firm offers health insurance, not all workers get covered. Some workers are not eligible to enroll as a result of waiting periods or minimum work-hour rules, and others choose not to enroll perhaps because they must pay a share of the premium or can get coverage through a spouse. Within offering firms, 78% of workers are eligible for coverage, and 82% of eligible workers take-up coverage from that employer.   Looking at workers both in firms that offer benefits and firms that do not, 59% of workers have coverage through their own employer, down from 63% in 2000.  Among firms offering health benefits, 50% offer or contribute to a dental benefit and 21% offer or contribute to a vision benefit that is separate from any dental or vision coverage provided by the firm’s health plan.   In 2006, 35% of large firms (200 or more workers) offer retiree health coverage, virtually the same percentage as last year, but down from 66% in 1988. Among large firms offering retiree benefits, the vast majority (94%) offer benefits to early retirees, while 77% offer benefits to Medicare-age retirees.

11. The National Committee for Quality Assurance presents this year's annual report, which answers key questions about the health care industry. Is the quality of care continuing to improve? How are changing enrollment patterns affecting accountability? What is the impact – in lives and dollars – of closing quality gaps in the system? Which health plans are the industry standouts?  More than 70 million Americans enrolled in private health plans saw the quality of their health care improve in 2005, according to a new report by the National Committee for Quality Assurance (NCQA).  Among the most notable improvements: 77.7 percent of children enrolled in private health plans received all recommended immunizations, up from 72.5 percent in 2004; 70.3 percent of children in Medicaid managed care plans were immunized in accordance with clinical guidelines, up from 63.1 percent in 2004. And 75.5 percent of Medicare beneficiaries who were smokers received advice to quit, a gain of nearly 11 percentage points over 2004.  Amidst this success story, however, were signs that the pace of improvement may be slowing: fewer quality measures showed statistically significant improvements in 2005 than in 2004.  In 2005, accredited commercial managed care plans scored higher than their unaccredited counterparts on 38 of 40 reported measures. Accredited Medicare plans scored higher on 22 of 23 measures, while accredited Medicaid plans outperformed non-accredited plans on 34 of 38 measures.  Public reporting also spurs higher performance. This year, publicly reporting commercial plans outperformed non-publicly reporting plans on 37 of 40 measures, and publicly reporting Medicaid plans scored higher than their non-publicly reporting counterparts on 33 of 38 measures.  The continuing high cost of coverage has created new barriers to Americans with insurance receiving needed care and increased the number of Americans without insurance. While the recent double-digit pace of health care inflation appears to have slowed, the cost of the average health insurance policy for a family of four topped $10,000 a year in 2005.  Today, more than 100 million Americans who have health insurance still do not benefit from the transparency of quality measurement and reporting. And, of course, 47 million Americans who are uninsured have access to little or no information about the quality of the care they receive.

12. These continuous improvements in clinical quality over time, the direct result of performance measurement and reporting, have saved the lives of 53,000 to 91,000 Americans—and prevented hundreds of thousands of serious complications.  Perhaps the most dramatic success story is that of beta-blocker treatment: in 2005, more than 96 percent of patients who suffered a heart attack were prescribed beta-blockers to help prevent a second, and often fatal, heart attack, up from only 62 percent in 1996. This improvement alone has saved between 4,200 and 5,300 lives over the past 10 years.  There are, however, disturbing exceptions to this pattern of improvement. The quality of care for Americans with mental health problems remains as poor today as it was several years ago. Patients on antidepressant medication are about as likely to receive appropriate care today as they were in 1999.  Similarly, patients hospitalized for mental illness are only marginally more likely to receive appropriate follow-up care.  Despite the general improvements in quality over the past several years, enormous differences persist between the performance of the health care system as a whole and the top 10 percent of health plans who report on quality. These “quality gaps” represent the continuing failure to consistently deliver care in accordance with well-established guidelines and exact a substantial toll in terms of both lives and economic costs. If the entire health care system performed at the level of the top accountable plans, between 37,600 and 81,000 deaths would be avoided per year and between $2.6 billion and $3.6 billion in unnecessary hospitalization expenses would be saved.

 

13. The Strategic Plan 2006-2011 lays the foundation for an even stronger, more effective Department of Labor.  The plan sets four goals. A Prepared Workforce.  A Competitive Workforce.  Safe and Secure Workplaces. Strengthened Economic Protections.  Congress established the Department of Labor (DOL) with a mission to foster, promote, develop the welfare of the wage earners of the United States, to improve their working conditions, and to advance their opportunities for profitable employment.  The U.S. workforce continues to grow, but at a considerably slower rate than in the past. Its composition is shifting towards a more balanced distribution by age, sex, race and ethnicity.  During the 1970s, the workforce grew by 2.6 percent annually, declining to a 1.1 percent growth rate two decades later. In the next several decades, workforce growth is expected to slow to under 0.6 percent per year.  Downturns in the economy always mean fewer jobs are available and sometimes mean shifts in occupational demands once the economy rebounds. On the other hand, during times of high economic growth, fewer people may have time to devote to training, but the demand from business for new workers increases. While downturns in the economy affect many Americans, youth, especially those without a diploma or good job skills, are particularly vulnerable during periods of economic contraction. In addition, economic change translates directly into different, and sometimes new, demands for data as industrial sectors succeed others, and as consumer goods replace others.

 

14. The first goal, A Prepared Workforce, is to develop a prepared workforce by providing effective training and support services to new and incumbent workers and supplying high-quality information on the economy and labor market.  Two-thirds of the estimated 18.9 million new jobs created in the next ten years are expected to be filled by workers with some post-secondary education — whether it is a four year college degree, a two-year degree from a community college or specialized training like an apprenticeship program.  in 2005, the unemployment rate was 7.6 percent for individuals without a high school degree, 4.7 percent for high school graduates, and only 3.3 percent for individuals with an associate’s degree. Higher levels of educational attainment are also associated with higher earnings. In 2005, while high school graduates earned a median of $583 per week, individuals with an associate’s degree earned $699 per week, and those with a four year degree or graduate level education earned $1,013 per week. 

 

15. The second goal, A Competitive Workforce, aims to meet the demands of the worldwide economy by enhancing the effectiveness and efficiency of the workforce development and regulatory systems that assist workers and employers in meeting the challenges of worldwide competition.  The world is now witnessing one of the greatest economic transformations in history. The twin

revolutions of technology and information have ushered in the era known as globalization.  Although global competition is typically seen as a national challenge, the front lines of the battlefield are regional — where companies, workers, researchers, entrepreneurs, and governments come together to create a competitive advantage in the global economy.  Advantage stems from the prosperity-creating power of innovation — the ability to transform new ideas and the new knowledge into advanced, high quality products or services.  Many regions have made considerable progress in integrating talent and skills development into their larger economic strategies and in transforming their workforce, economic development, and education systems into one comprehensive system that is both flexible and responsive to  the needs of businesses and workers.

 

16. The third goal, Safe and Secure Workplaces, focuses on ensuring that workplaces are safe, healthful, and fair; providing workers with the wages due them; providing equal opportunity; and protecting veterans’ employment and reemployment rights.  The Department protects the rights of workers covered under the Occupational Health and Safety Act of 1970 by responding promptly to imminent danger situations; investigating fatalities, catastrophes and worker complaints; enforcing whistle blower rights; and inspecting Federal agencies to protect Federal workers. In the past thirty years,. occupational injury and illness rates have declined 56 percent.  Since 1970, the number of workers DOL is responsible for protecting has expanded dramatically from 58 million workers at 3.5 million work sites to 111 million workers at 7.25 million establishments.   The Department remains committed to promoting compliance with labor standards to better protect all workers, especially those most economically disadvantaged and vulnerable.  Through proper administration and enforcement of laws, the Department ensures that low-wage workers receive the wages due them. The number of workers receiving back wages, which is the difference between what the employee was paid and the amount he or she should have been paid, has increased by 11 percent since FY 2001. This increase includes $166 million in back wages for over 241,000 employees in FY 2005.  In FY 2005, the Department recovered a record $45,156,462 for 14,761 American workers who had been subjected to unlawful employment discrimination.

 

17. The fourth goal, Strengthened Economic Protections, commits the Department to protect and strengthen economic security through effective and efficient provision of unemployment insurance and workers’ compensation; ensuring union transparency; and securing pension and health benefits.  Achieving a high level of economic protection for the work force is vital to a strong and stable economy.  Economic protections administer payments of temporary benefits for the unemployed and that protect employees from the economic effects of work related illness and injury.  Union democracy helps to promote financial accountability.  The Department of Labor is also responsible for the administration and civil enforcement of Title I of the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (ERISA).  This responsibility extends to approximately 730,000 private defined benefit and defined contribution pension plans and six million private health and welfare plans holding over $4.5 trillion in assets and covering approximately 150 million Americans.

 

18. The health of the US economy has clearly reached a new phase in its development where lower growth and lower inflation are to be expected.  For the citizens, consumers and even investors the new status quo should not be problematic and it seems unlikely that this period of relatively lower growth will be labeled as a recession in appreciation for the lower rates of inflation as long as indicators remain static as predicted and there is hope for future improvements when the obstacles to economic harmony are overcome and growth can be renewed.  To improve the economic situation regulators will need to wrestle with the federal budget deficit that can be easily balanced if the federal government would only keep OASI closer to cost and greatly decrease military spending so as to be proportionate to the global aggregate military expenditure.  Further regulatory action needs to be taken to reign in the health insurance industry that is not justified in their high premiums and annual increases in premiums that are more than twice the annual wage increase.  The most important action in regards to health insurance is opening relatively low cost Medicare and Medicaid to employers regardless of income.  As the result of this competition private health insurers would have to reduce their costs and employees.  The general health of the US economy demands that regulators come to grips with the account deficit by balancing the budget, taking a more protectionist approach in international trade and supportive role in regards to the rights of their citizens. 

 

Sources

Bernanke, Ben S. Chairman of the  Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. At The Washington Economic Club, Washington, D.C.  The Coming Demographic Transition: Will We Treat Future Generations Fairly? October 4, 2006

Bureau of Economic Analysis. Overview of the Economy: Perspective from the BEA Accounts. 2006

 

Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Current Population Survey. 2006

 

Coy, Peter. Is the Economy Headed for a Fall? Business Week. 3 October 2006

 

Chow, Elaine. Secretary of the Department of Labor. Strategic Plan 2006-2011. 2006

 

Kaiser Family Foundation and Health Research and Educational Trust.  Annual Health Insurance Survey 2006

Kohn, Donald L. Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve. At the Money Marketeers of New York University, New York, New York October 4, 2006

Mendel, Michael. What is Really Propping up the Economy? Business Week. 14 September 2006

National Committee for Quality Assurance.  Key Questions Regarding the Health Industry. 2006

Sanders, Tony J. Balanced Account Deficit. HA-26-9-06